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The escalating tensions between the United States, Israel, and Iran are creating ripple effects far beyond geopolitics. According to an analysis by Bernstein Research, several international automakers—particularly Toyota Motor Corporation, Hyundai Motor Company, and Chinese manufacturers such as Chery Automobile—could face the most significant disruptions in the automotive sector. The Middle East has become a key market for global car manufacturers, and any instability in the region can directly affect vehicle sales, supply chains, and logistics.

 

 

 

According to Bernstein’s analysis, non-domestic automakers account for roughly one-third of total vehicle sales across the Middle East. Among them, the biggest players include:

 

Toyota Motor Corporation – Approximately 17% market share

 

Hyundai Motor Company – Around 10% market share

 

Chery Automobile – Nearly 5% market share

 

In Iran specifically, local automakers dominate the market. The leading companies include:

 

Iran Khodro

 

SAIPA

 

However, Chery still maintains a presence in the Iranian market with about 6% market share, making it one of the most significant foreign brands operating there.

 

 

The Middle East has also become an increasingly important destination for Chinese vehicle exports. According to export data cited by Bernstein, about 17% of China’s passenger vehicle exports in 2025 were sent to the Middle East. This means any disruption in the region could have a disproportionate impact on Chinese car manufacturers. As brands like Chery and other Chinese automakers expand globally, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could slow their international growth strategies.

 

 

One of the biggest concerns highlighted in the report is the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz—a narrow but vital waterway that connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Indian Ocean. This route is essential not only for oil shipments but also for vehicle and parts logistics. According to consulting firm AlixPartners:

 

Roughly 20 million barrels of crude oil pass through the Strait of Hormuz every day.

 

The strait serves as a critical passage for vehicle and automotive parts shipments into the Middle East.

 

If the strait were closed due to conflict, shipping times could increase significantly.

 

Bernstein analyst Eunice Lee explained that the closure of the strait could add 10–14 days to shipping transit times, creating serious delays for the automotive industry.

 

 

Increased logistics costs

 

Delayed vehicle deliveries

 

Reduced regional vehicle sales

 

 

The conflict has already started influencing global oil markets. U.S. crude oil prices recently surpassed $90 per barrel, while average gasoline prices in the United States have risen by nearly 27 cents in a single week, reaching about $3.25 per gallon, according to data from AAA. Higher fuel prices often influence consumer behavior in the car market. Buyers tend to shift away from large, fuel-hungry vehicles and move toward more fuel-efficient or electric models.

 

 

Among European automakers, Stellantis—the parent company of brands like Jeep and Chrysler—may face notable exposure. Bernstein noted that Stellantis has already experienced an 11% drop in its stock price since the previous Friday. Analyst Eunice Lee pointed out that the company’s strategic pivot back toward gas-powered HEMI V8 engines while scaling back electrification efforts may be poorly timed amid rising fuel prices. The company has said it is closely monitoring the evolving geopolitical situation, but added that it is still too early to fully evaluate the potential operational impact.

 

 

Some companies have already issued statements regarding the situation. Toyota Motor Corporation stated that it does not conduct business in Iran and currently has no resident employees in the country. However, the company is monitoring the situation closely to ensure the safety of its employees across the Middle East. Hyundai Motor Company and Chery Automobile had not yet responded to requests for comment at the time of the report.

 

 

While the immediate effects may be regional, the broader automotive industry could feel the consequences if tensions escalate further. Key risks include:

 

Supply chain disruptions

 

Increased shipping costs

 

Delays in vehicle deliveries

 

Rising fuel prices influencing consumer demand

 

With the Middle East serving as both a key export destination and a critical logistics corridor, automakers worldwide will need to monitor the geopolitical developments closely.  If the conflict intensifies or trade routes like the Strait of Hormuz become restricted, the impact could extend far beyond the region—potentially reshaping global automotive supply chains in the months ahead.